As 2009 rolls around, it's that time of the year when pundits make their annual predictions about what's going to happen in the coming year.
Truth be told, I'd be lying if I said I had any certain ideas about anything for 2009, let alone my beat of science, technology and business.
After the exhausting, troubled year that was 2008, we know only three things are relatively safe to predict for 2009: it is now President Obama's first year in office, the need for a global, co-ordinated effort to combat the climate crisis is now more urgent than ever, and we're very lucky to live in a country like Canada that won't bear the brunt of the worst global economic downturn in more than two generations.
Those three precepts help form the basis for what's going to happen in tech and business in 2009. While we're indeed heading for some rough times and many industries will suffer in the short-to-medium-term, the world of IT - an inherently creative, outgoing, optimistic and adaptable field of endeavour - has a golden opportunity to take advantage of our collective challenges.
So, without further ado, here are some of my ideas for what might happen in 2009.
The Green IT Movement:
The computing industry has taken notice of the Going Green movement for a few years now; 2009 will be the year this movement becomes a popular, mainstream, galvanizing force for everyone from Google to small-time entrepreneurs.
From an environmental standpoint, computers remain a source of great concern in terms of their impact on the planet: computer carbon emissions, huge power demands for data centres and server farms, and, of course, the big one - computer products in landfills and waste disposal centres around the world.
Of course, many companies, including big players like IBM, have already gotten into the game of finding more Earth-friendly computing solutions. It's not only good for the planet, but also for the bottom line in a touch-and-go economy like ours. Expect this issue to become a big one for computer companies in 2009.
The Fall (and Rise) of Advertising:
With the economic downturn undoubtedly hitting every sector of the economy hard, one area is virtually assured to take a major hit: advertising.
While advertisers aren't likely to stop selling ads, online advertising is likely to be the only medium where sales will show any signs of future growth, given how online advertising has the ability to highly target ads to a customer base. This may force traditional forms of media like television to change their approach to selling ad space, enabling companies like Google to help traditional broadcasters and newspapers press ahead into an economically sustainable model for the Digital Age. Expect the economic turmoil to force radically new ideas to be embraced by traditional mass media and to reach out to new online partners in the quest for ad dollars.
Cinema's New Golden Age:
As we've seen in past economic downturns, movies offer a cheap (well, sometimes) form of escape from the unpleasant realities of the world. This being said, filmmaking in the Digital Age has been a difficult business in the past several years. Aside from not keeping up with the Internet's effect on the business, the red-hot product of 2009 - the Blu-Ray disc - is bound to entice more people to switch to HD and stay at home more often (especially since the U.S. is switching over to digital television broadcasting only in February).
Like the publishing industries, movie-going is gradually shifting to a more "value-added" approach, or rather more bang for your buck. This has never been more apparent than with a potential killer app for Hollywood that may result in a potential Renaissance for the industry: 3-D filmmaking.
As more theatres like AMC's Yonge and Dundas cinema go fully digital, next-generation 3-D technology is poised to re-define the movie-going experience. Several films are being released in 2009 with a 3-D format, culminating in superstar sci-fi director James Cameron (Titanic, Terminator 2: Judgment Day) releasing his long-anticipated 3-D film Avatar in December. Expect 3-D to make a major impact in 2009, not just from a technological perspective, but from a business one, too.
The Beginnings of Web 3.0:
Remember the expression Web 2.0? The term refers to how certain web sites like YouTube, Wikipedia or Facebook depend on users engaging with content in order to generate value.
While the Web 3.0 Era isn't here yet in its entirety, the foundations for the next stage of the web will begin to really take shape in 2009.
Referred to as the "Intelligent Web," Web 3.0 as a concept involves the rapid growth of Open ID, software-as-a-service and much more open technologies and databases of information being shared and collaborated with. If Web 1.0 was just reading websites and sending e-mail, and Web 2.0 involves sites like YouTube and blogs, then Web 3.0 will involve going beyond reading and writing online - imagine a full experience of HD-quality video online, on-demand engagement with people, institutions and businesses and even "intelligent machines" (read: artificial intelligence) that assist users and businesses in co-ordinated interaction online.
As we've seen in the past two years, more and more technology firms see the value of an open computing architecture: more user flexibility, more content development and better engagement with users.
While much of the technology to make Web 3.0 a true reality isn't quite ready for Prime Time yet, expect more chatter about Web 3.0 in 2009.
So there you have it. While I have more predictions for 2009, it's important to point out that I said at this time last year that 2008 was going to be less about sexy new products and gizmos and more about working with and understanding this brave new digital world we're in.
In 2009, all bets are off. It will be a year in which businesses, people and institutions are collectively reacting to forces seemingly out of our control. It will be a year in which we're forced to come to grips with the challenges we all face.
But most of all, it will be a year in which our economic, political and environmental problems will translate into new opportunities - especially for the IT industry.